WP2: Integrated and Hybrid Modelling of Climate Change

Objectives

  • To achieve a fundamental break-through in developing new generation of IAMs.
  • To develop and upgrade energy, environment and related benefits modelling tools.
  • To achieve a major qualitative step forward in evaluating emission reduction pathways and carbon pricing.

Task 1: Integrated Assessment Modelling

We employ, further develop, and innovate a wide array of the IAMs developed or used at GEOCEP partner institutions. Our emphasis is on working towards a fundamental breakthrough in developing a new generation of IAMs. The expertise of macroeconomists and builders of large models is utilized here.

Task 2: Economic and sectoral modelling

We cover general equilibrium and sector optimization models and other modelling frameworks both in theory and policy applications. We focus on emerging and newly developed markets and on deep decarbonisation transition. We pay particular attention to integrated and hybrid models, including linked bottom-up and top-down models like CGE-TIMES and energy optimisation growth models, such as WITCH.  In industrial organization theoretical modelling we explicitly focus on the transportation sector. Besides mainstream economics techniques the operations research, energy engineering, and general mathematical programming techniques are developed and used in this task.

Task 3: Optimal emission reduction trajectories and carbon pricing

Carbon pricing - the key problem in climate change economics - is thoroughly investigated from both theoretical and applied policy perspectives. This task involves not only measuring the social cost of carbon but more importantly, identifying optimal carbon emission reduction trajectories and optimal carbon pricing, including EU ETS. Innovative, theoretically based approaches are used to determine the optimal price of carbon. In connection with WP 3, we improve methods for quantifying ancillary benefits (particularly health effects associated with emissions reduction of air quality pollutants) of reducing carbon. Quantitative economic modelling is complemented with political science analysis of publicly acceptable options and programmes.

Published results 

Ambec, Stefan, Yuting Yang. 2023. ‘Climate policy with electricity trade.’ Working Paper 23-1422. Toulouse: Toulouse School of Economics.

Barbosa, Alysson M., Paulo Rotella Junior, Rogério S. Peruchi, Luiz C. S. Rocha, Alfeu L. G. Pires, and Karel Janda. 2025. ‘Stochastic multi-objective optimization of hybrid distributed power generation with battery storage systems.’ Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 20 (1): 2504487.

Baumgärtner, C. Lennart. 2025. 'Dynamic Models for Clean Energy Technology Diffusion and Improvement.' PhD diss., University of Oxford.

Bücker, Joris. 2024. ‘Pathways through the green transition and beyond: applying networks to industrial strategy, labour markets, and productive knowledge.’ PhD diss. Oxford: University of Oxford.

Carlino, Angelo, Rafael Schmitt, Aaron Clark, Giacomo Falcone, Christiane Zarfl, and Andrea Castelletti. 2024. ‘Rethinking energy planning to mitigate the impacts of African hydropower.’ Nature Sustainability 7 (7): 915–26.

Elminejad, Ali. (2024). Essays on the Meta-Analysis of Deep Parameters. PhD diss., Charles University.

Eshun, Samuel Fiifi, Evžen Kočenda, Princewill Okwoche, and Milan Ščasný. 2025. ‘Price and Income Elasticities of Industrial Energy Demand in New EU Member States.’ Working Papers IES 2025/11. Prague: Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University.

Ficura, Milan, Rustam Ibragimov, and Karel Janda. 2025. ‘Artificial Intelligence–Based Forecasting of Oil Prices: Evidence from Neural Network Models.’ EconStor Workin Paper 335571. Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

Gatty, Andrés. 2025. ‘Essays on Sudden Stops in Capital Inflows: Determinants and Optimal Responses.’ PhD diss. Santiago: Pontifical Catholic University of Chile.

Janda, Karel, Kristoufek Ladislav, Binyi Zhang. 2022. ‘Return and volatility spillovers between Chinese and U.S. clean energy related stocks.’ Energy Economics, 108: 105911.

Kibira, Gerald, Edwin Muchapondwa, and Herbert Ntuli. 2024. ‘The optimal combination of pastoral activities and wildlife conservation in the Serengeti ecosystem.’ Natural Resource Modeling 37 (2): e12391.

Kopečná, Vědunka, Inaki Veruete Villegas. 2026. ‘ Green Transitions in Coal-Dependent Economies: A Hybrid Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech National Energy and Climate Plan.’ Working Papers 2025/06. Prague: Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University.

Lehtomaa, Jere. 2022. ‘Learning-based Control for Climate Policy Analysis.’ Ch. 4, pp.114-147. In Essays on Environmental Governance and Climate Impact Uncertainty. Zurich: Ph.D. diss., ETH Zuriché

Leuthard, Matthias. 2025. ‘Equity and Efficiency of Carbon Tax Policies in Switzerland with Endogenous Energy Substitution.’ Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 161 (12).

Opatrný, Matěj, and Milan Ščasný. 2025. ‘Elasticity of marginal utility of consumption: the equal-sacrifice approach applied for the Czech Republic.’ Journal of Economic Inequality 23 (1).

Roventini, A. 2025. ’The DSK stock-flow consistent agent-based integrated assessment model.’ Ecological Economics, 236, 108641.

Ščasný, Milan, Matěj Opatrný. 2026.  ‘New estimates of the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption for Europe.’ Empirical Economics 70, 91 (2026).

Turdaliev, Salim. 2025. ‘Essays in Energy Economics: Evidence from Micro and Experimental data.’ PhD diss. Prague: Charles University.

Veruete Villegas, Inaki, and Milan Ščasný. 2024. ‘Input-output modeling amidst crisis: Tracing natural gas pathways in the Czech Republic during the war-induced energy turmoil.’ Working Papers IES 2024/18. Prague: Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University.